Here's an analysis from last year on New Zealand's carbon problems. Problems the Kyotophiles in the government ignored: 5/11/2004 -- NEW ZEALAND: Kyoto tree planting credits won't be much help
So it was known a year ago that the magic tree wasn't sufficient to save NZ from Kyoto costs. "... not to ratify Kyoto would be to set fire to a very large cheque." Wow, that sure didn't work out, did it?
"New Zealand treaty negotiators pushed for this stipulation to be written into the 1997 Kyoto Protocol at a time when new areas planted in trees in this country was at its peak, at about 100,000ha in 1994. Regrettably, the rate at which land was switched to commercial forestry has declined rapidly ever since, to an estimated 15,000ha last year. "
Bureaucrats always seem to think that a commercial trend, like forest conversion in this case, will continue unabated for the imaginable future, ignoring all economic incentives for it not to do so. It certainly didn't help that the NZ Kyotophiles caught NZ at the absolute peak, rather than a median point, so their numbers were hopelessly optimistic. Now they get to pay for their folly.